We have analyzed whether or not George Karl should return as coach, who should come back among the players who constitute the end of the Nuggets bench, if Nene’s injury history is too bad to bother keeping him around, how important Eduardo Najera is, if Linas Kleiza has reached his ceiling, and where signing J.R. Smith to an extension ranks on the Nuggets offseason priority list.

After all of that, we have made it to the starting five. 

Let’s take a look at who was clearly the weak link in the Nuggets starting lineup this season.  That’s right, starting point guard Anthony Carter.

Anthony Carter’s story is a good one.  He has bounced around not only the league, but the world, lost $3.3 million when his agent failed to pick up his player option with Miami in 2003 (without which the Heat never would have been able to win a championship) and finally became a starting point guard for a 50 win team. 

The bad news is he was not a very good point guard.  He had one exceptional skill and that was passing the ball, often right over the finger tips of a defender, up the floor, as in half to two thirds of the length of the court up the floor, to a streaking teammate to trigger a fast break.  Apart from that Carter is average to below average in almost every other facet of the game.  When the Nuggets were not running, he contributed very little. 

Carter is a decent defender.  He was probably the Nuggets smartest defender thanks to a very good grasp of defensive positioning.  Unfortunately, he was consistently asked to defend the opposing shooting guard due to the fact he was paired with Allen Iverson much of the time.  Needless to say, that was not a good defensive combo for Denver.  Conversely, it was not necessarily a good offensive duo either.  AI possessed the ball much more frequently than the “point guard” Anthony Carter did.  That would be fine if Carter was a point guard like Derek Fisher who can kill the opposition by draining jumpers all night long, but Carter’s inability to hit shots was a major problem within the Nuggets half court offense.

Carter’s deficiencies were revealed for all to see against the Lakers.  He shot 4-14, only averaged 3.5 assists a game and saw his average minutes drop from 28 down to 15 because the Lakers were so adept at picking on the mismatches that were created by having both he and AI on the floor at the same time and with Kenyon Martin guarding Kobe.

According to 82games.com the most frequently used lineup for the Nuggets last season was the standard starting lineup of Carter, AI, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon and Marcus Camby.  Despite having more than five times the court time of any other lineup, they only had the sixth best plus/minus rating of the other top twenty lineups.  For example, the starters had a plus/minus of 34 in 923 minutes.  The fivesome of AI, J.R. LK, Najera and Camby had a plus minus of 61 despite playing only 167 minutes together. 

Carter’s poor totals did not end there.  Out of the six lineups that had better plus/minus totals than the starters, he was not a part of any of them.  However, he was a part of three of the four lineups who actually had negative plus/minus totals.

I am being pretty tough on Carter and that is not entirely fair.  In a way, he was a big factor in why the Nuggets season was even remotely successful.  Without him Denver would have been stuck starting a player like Mike Wilks at the point for most of the season or weakening the bench by moving AI to the point and starting LK or J.R.  Add in the fact that he was paid a near minimum salary of just over a million bucks and his value increases even more.  Even so, if the Nuggets are going to bring all the major players back again next year, there is no way you can expect them to improve without bringing in a better starting point guard.

Despite the fact he was so important to Denver last season, AC may lose out in a numbers game.  Carter is an unrestricted free agent this summer.  Chucky Atkins is under contract for another year.  Taurean Green is the young point guard prospect they acquired at the trading deadline.  It would be strange to see him cut loose unless he proved himself to be incapable of playing at an NBA level.  The bottom line is if the Nuggets decide to bring in another point guard to start, retaining Carter would require carrying four points.  That is probably not going to happen. 

Of course, we cannot know for sure if the Nuggets brass are going to upgrade the point, but already this offseason they have been linked to several different point guards.  Whether it be pricy veterans such as T.J. Ford and Kirk Hinrich, or a rookie such as North Carolina point man Ty Lawson, who most draft pundits believe is the likely selection for Denver with the 20^th pick thanks to his ability to excel when playing at a frenetic pace.  Of course there is also the potential for Denver to sign a relatively cheap free agent such as Chris Duhon or J.J. Barea.  Whether or not the Nuggets bring in a vet or a rookie, Carter will probably be the player shown the door.

Obviously, it is not fair.  Carter is a good guy who deserves the chance to cash in on his big break last season.  If Denver either sticks with their current triumvirate at the point or if they can somehow trade Chucky Atkins, they would definitely be happy to throw two or three million Carter’s way.

The bad news for Carter is I think both of those scenarios are unlikely.

Thanks for the career season you gave the Nuggets this year Anthony, I am sure someone out there will be happy to give you that much deserved couple million dollars next year, just do not expect it to be the Nuggets.

Entering the season the Nuggets had what appeared to be a strong core of Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby and Nene.  However, there were some big questions about what they had on the rest of their roster. 

Eduardo Najera was the only known quantity coming off the bench to start the season.  Kenyon Martin was recovering from his second microfracture procedure and how much or how long he could play was unknown.  Many people expected to make a mere cameo appearance before having something else go wrong.  J.R. Smith had been publicly benched in the 2007 playoffs and experienced a tragic offseason.  Most Nugget fans would have probably preferred a public execution of J.R. as opposed to seeing him on the court. 

Newly acquired Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones were question marks.  How they would fit into the Nuggets system was a mystery.  Yakhouba Diawara was a good defensive player, but offensively had not been able to translate his interior game from college to a perimeter game at the NBA level.  The point guard situation was in flux with both Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter injured.  The only other somewhat reliable player off the bench other than Najera was Linas Kleiza, but he had not done much other than have a handful of nice games.

Fast forward to April of 2008 and Kenyon Martin started 71 games and was still ticking.  J.R. Smith was considered one of the top sixth men in the NBA over the second half of the season.  Linas Kleiza had taken another step forward and was providing a higher level of productivity than the previous season.  Eduardo Najera was not just a scrappy player, but had added a pretty consistent three point shot to his arsenal.  Nene was available for a few games and provided a good boost when he was on the floor.

On the other hand, not everyone on the bench proved to be a success story.  Kuba Diawara played frequently early in the season, but his complete lack of offense, even for a team with several scorers, was too difficult to swallow.  Steven Hunter shattered his previous career lows in both games played and minutes.  He was only given the chance to play major minutes once all season even though he played well in that game.  Chucky Atkins was hurt for much of the season and then ineffective upon his return.  Bobby Jones was cut loose only to be brought back after having four other teams kick his tires.  The already forgotten Von Wafer was abysmal as he failed to make a single three pointer for the Nuggets this season.

With all of that as prologue the question at hand is what do the Nuggets do with the players who basically added nothing to the team this season?  Someone has to fill out the bottom of your roster.  Should the Nuggets hang on to these guys or should they look to replace them for someone else.

Before we analyze the Nuggets bench to determine who should stay and who should go, I better share my thoughts on my philosophy on how to best fill the last five or so spots available on the roster so you can tell where I am coming from. 

I believe the bottom slots should go to young players with potential to develop into something.  Whether they are second round picks or undrafted free agents, there are always talented players sitting around the scrap heap.  Examples of these types of players currently on the Nuggets roster are Bobby Jones and Taurean Green.  For Denver to allocate any more than three roster spots for players like that who may not play much during the season when they have injury risks such as Kenyon Martin and Nene might be dangerous, but you would never catch me carrying a Eric Piatkowski or Kevin Ollie on my team.

That being said, let’s take a look, player by player, at the bottom of the Nuggets roster and try to figure out who should be back, and who should move on.

Chucky Atkins (24 G, 14.6 MPG, 4.7 PPG, 2 APG, 31.6 3P%)

I was very outspoken about the Nuggets addition of Chucky Atkins.  You can sum my thoughts up as basically what a waste of money as well as a roster spot.  Yes, Chucky had a nice year last season in Memphis, but it came out of nowhere at the age of 32.  Memphis was not sad to see him leave and neither were the Lakers or Wizards before that.  I have heard mention of a player option for a third season on Chucky’s contract, but as far as I can tell he signed a two year deal.  To me, that makes Chucky a $3.4 million expiring contract. 

There is no reason to waive or buy Chucky out at this point.  He will be back and George Karl will probably try to find a spot in the rotation for him as long as he can stay healthy next season. 

The only area of Chucky’s game that impressed me at all was his ability to run the pick and roll.  As long as he can set up his teammates with easy shots, he should be on the floor for a few minutes here and there.  If he can somehow regain his stroke, which I see no reason why he cannot be counted on to hit 35-37% of his threes he would be a solid back up point guard. 

Then of course, it will be interesting what that $3.4 million can help accomplish next February at the trade deadline.

Verdict:  Keep him and either trade him or enjoy the savings of his expiring contract

Yakhouba Diawara (54 G, 10.1 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 31.8 3P%)

When Kuba was a rookie George Karl proclaimed that he had the potential to be a Bruce Bowen type lockdown defender.  Well, Kuba is a good defender, but as impotent as Bowen is offensively, Kuba is far worse. 

His offense is limited to shooting open threes and perhaps scoring on a post up once every other month.  He cannot drive, he cannot set his teammates up and he does not rebound. 

There was some hope for Kuba early in the season as he finished November shooting 45.2% from three point range.  Then he only made seven of 35 threes over the remainder of the season.  Yep, 20%. 

Needless to say that is not encouraging.

Kuba is currently not under contract and I would have no problem with Denver bringing him to training camp next season to see if he has made any progress, but I would not give him a guaranteed deal.

From what I have seen, I do not think Kuba has what it takes to make it in the NBA.

Verdict:  I have seen all I need to see, b-bye

Bobby Jones (25 G, 8.9 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 1.1 RPG, 39.1 3P%)

One of the big mistakes I thought the Nuggets made with their bench this season was casting Jones off early in the season.  Fortunately, the rectified that mistake by bringing him back at the end of the season, which makes you wonder why he was waived in the first place. 

I have gone on record of saying I like Bobby Jones.  He is a solid defender.  He is aggressive going to the basket.  It seemed that within the first minute or two that he was on the floor in every game he played he was called for a charge, but he would always settle down after that. 

Jones also improved his three point shooting this season hitting 39.1% of his threes as a Nugget though he only 34% overall for the season.

Jones is without a contract at the moment, but I would like to see the Nuggets offer him a guaranteed deal for next year as long as it is in the neighborhood of the league minimum.

Verdict: Bring him back, I am intrigued 

Steven Hunter (19 G, 6.3 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 0.32 B, 53.6 FG%)

I mentioned that one of the problems I had with the Nuggets bench was their release of Bobby Jones, well here is the second.  Steven Hunter should have been playing at least 12 minutes a game. 

Marcus Camby clearly lost his edge in the second half of the season and was a mere shadow of the player that some thought should have been an all-star (even though they were wrong).  Camby played 390 more minutes than he had ever played before and six hundred more minutes than his second highest minutes played total.  As I have pointed out before, that is an extra 11 or 12 games worth of minutes Camby played this season.

Does anyone else think Hunter could have helped prevent that from happening? 

Hunter is a proven rebounder and shot blocker, he also showed he is adept at running the floor and most importantly, not taking 20 foot jumpers.

I will never understand why Hunter only played double digit minutes once this season.

He is under contract and has two years left at more than $3 million a season. 

Verdict:  Let him play!  Let him play!  Let him play!

Taurean Green (9 G, 3.3 MPG, 1.1 PPG, 0.3 APG, 33.3 3P%)

Taurean Green was acquired in exchange for Von Wafer at the trading deadline.  Wafer was supposed to be the young prospect for the Nuggets heading into this season.  Now Green takes that spot. 

We really have not seen enough of Green to know what Denver has in him.  He certainly has the ability to become a very good back up point guard or perhaps even a fringe starter.  Sounds like the kind of player I would like to have rounding out my roster.

The Nuggets hold a team option on Green for $711,517 and I would be shocked if they declined it.

Verdict:  Keep him around until he proves he is no good

(Thanks to Hoops Hype for the salary information)

Before we get to the offseason analysis here are some links to put the Nuggets season into a nutshell.  Some of these articles predate Pickaxe and Roll so many of you have probably not been exposed to them. 

Contenders? That is a First for Me   

The Original Sticky Fingers Study 

Can We Draw Conclusions From Five Games?

Reassessing the Sticky Fingers Study – Is Passing Really Helpful?

Game 18:  Denver Nuggets 115 – Miami Heat 89 (Very little here about the actual game.  I included this post because I projected the Nuggets to at best win 50 games this season in the other observations section)

An Open Letter to More Optimistic Nuggets Fans Than Me

Do Not Read This Post Standing Up

Fire (Up) Karl

Chaos in the Wild, Wild West

Karl’s Thoughts on Nene

Nene’s Tumor is Benign!

Staying Up All Night Thinking of George

Today is All-Star Thursday for Melo and AI  

I’ll Have a Miller

Post All-Star Break Outlook

Getting Past the (Trade) Deadline

The Story of Bad Losses

Nene to Return Thursday?

A Beginning or an Ending?   (Post prior to the April game at Golden State)

Drunk Driving and Carmelo Anthony’s Reputation

The Frustration of a Season Without a Silver Lining

There you have the Nuggets season in a neat little, or not so little, package.