During the mammoth eight hour long Ridiculous Upside NBA Draft live blog I joked that the only activity in the Nuggets war room was the janitor entering the room to clean up.  Well, I guess someone was around after all as the Nuggets completed a late night trade with the Bulls and Trailblazers that ended up bringing Sonny Weems to the Mile High City.

I know I have seen Weems play here and there because I have see Arkansas play a couple of times while he was there.  On the other hand, I have no recollection of noticing Weems at all. 

Here are two things I have found out about Weems. 

He can dunk.

And apparently he passed his college algebra test.

His numbers are solid for a college player.  He averaged 15 points a game and has tremendous size and athleticism for a shooting guard.  In the first round of the 2008 NCAA tournament he shot 12-14 and scored 31 points.  He certainly has the ability to play in the NBA.  On the other hand he had more turnovers than assists and shot an unspectacular 37% from the college three point line.  Basicaly a poor man's J.R. Smith with an attitude adjustment.

My favorite excerpt from his profile on Draft Express proves why the Nuggets were interested in him.

Defensively, Weems is extremely poor, clearly lacking awareness and fundamentals, not getting in any type of real stance, getting lost within his team’s scheme on a regular basis, and often resorting to just gambling for steals and chasing after the ball instead of rotating and playing sound defense. He has all the tools to be extremely effective in this area, so it’s a bit surprising why he can’t translate them into success on this end of the floor. His junior college roots likely have a lot to do with it.

Clearly he will fit right in defensively.

My biggest problem with this deal is (here it comes) they ended up trading a future second round draft pick for him.  Miami acquired Mario Chalmers for two second round draft picks.  Had the Nuggets simply thrown in an additional second round pick they could have acquired Chalmers.  Obviously the Nuggets are no where near as impressed as I am with Chalmers, but they still desperately need a point guard.

The good news that came out of the draft last night was Michael Jordan continued to prove that he is a poor GM.  D.J. Augustin is a good player, but he is not that much of an upgrade over Raymond Felton.  He will be a defensive liability and it will clearly take him some time to adjust to the NBA.  Their second pick of Alexis Ajinca was the typical Hail Mary big man pick.  Ajinca looks great in workouts, but so did Skita.  You have to judge these guys based on what they do during games and Ajinca could only average five points and five rebounds in France.  Even if he does pan out, it will not be for at least two more years.  In my mind those picks make the future draft pick the Bobcats owe the Nuggets a little more valuable.  The question is does it make it more valuable in the minds of other GMs around the league that the Nuggets will be looking to trade it to.

Other good news is the Golden State Warriors drafted a player in Anthony Randolph who will not help them one bit next season so they did not get any immediate help in the draft to help pass the Nuggets next season.

Portland on the other hand is a completely different story.  Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, LeMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Channing Frye, Nicholas Batum and Joel Przybilla.  That is not even a complete list of all their assets.  If Oden can produce at anywhere near what is expected of him Portland is going to be dominant very soon for a very long time.

In the end it might not matter what the Nuggets do, they will probably just end up as a chew toy for the Trailblazers.

Before we start make sure you check out the live blog on Ridiculous Upside.  I will be checking in from time to time, but do not let that stop you from participating.

I do not think I have really communicated how much I love the NBA Draft.  I love watching games and video and trying to project whether a player can hack it in the NBA.  In that spirit here are my thoughts on some of the draft eligible players.

Derrick Rose – I think the Rose bandwagon is getting a little carried away.  He absolutely is a special player, but I think the comparisons of his point guard skills to those of Chris Paul are way off.  I reviewed the Kansas/Memphis title game last night and Rose has great size and strength for a point guard, he can get in the lane at will and has nuclear athleticism, but he is a limited shooter and I think his passing skills are overrated.  He also does not seem to have that instinct to see two or three moves ahead.  I am sure I will take some heat for this, if anyone actually reads it, but I think Rose is being set up to fail with such high expectations.  Especially considering there is almost no debate over whether or not he should be the top pick.

Michael Beasley – Conversely I think Beasley is being undervalued.  The only knock on him that I think is relevant is his lack of defense and that is a big knock.  However, he has the skills and size to be a good defender.  I am not concerned about his prankster/joker personality.  I think he is a worker and plays with great intensity.  He knew that playing at Kansas State would be his one season dress rehearsal for the NBA and he proved that he took the game seriously.

OJ Mayo – I agree with the general consensus that OJ is the third best prospect in the draft.  He has been picked apart more than anyone else which is to be expected since he was on the radar screen as a 16 year old.  He is strong, can handle the ball and shoot and has the ability to play great perimeter defense.  He certainly is not going to live up to his former billing as the next LeBron, but he is going to be an all-star.

Kevin Love – I have almost no feel for how Love will turn out.  I could see him being a very good starter or a rider of the bench.  I have serious concerns about his ability to keep up in the NBA, but on the other hand he has some amazing skills as a big man.  Maybe he is a capable of passing on the last four pieces of lemon meringue pie version of Oliver Miller.  Love will clearly not eat himself out of the league and is reportedly in great shape, but he just is not explosive and needs to go to a team who is more half court oriented.

Anthony Randolph – He has some impressive skills, but it seems to me like if he pans out it will be for a team other than the one that drafts him.

Robin Lopez – I do not see a first round pick here.  He may stick in the league simply by being tall and working hard, but he will never play more than 15 minutes a game for a decent team.

Mario Chalmers – You know me likey.  After watching his performance in the championship game again I was even more impressed.  He is fast yet under control, makes great entry passes to the post.  Can drive with either hand (he is very good going to his left) and we all know he can shoot.  If he is still on the board when the 20^th pick comes up I will be difficult to be around.

J.J. Hickson – I do not see what is not to like.  This guy is going to be a steal in the 20’s.

Roy Hibbert – I do not understand how anyone can watch him move and still think he can survive in the NBA.  He is Gheorghe Muresan without the ability to rebound or sell cologne.  Bad combination.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He is the Antawn Jamison of perimeter players.  He is very unorthodox and it makes him highly effective.  If he could get to the point where he can hit 37% from the NBA three point line he will score 20 points a game.

Jason Thompson – I do not know what the big deal is with this guy.  There are reports he could go 14^th!  He has size and is somewhat mobile, but I am not impressed.  He is not particularly athletic and does not protect his shot very well.  He opens the ball up to the defender which is fine when you are playing Siena.  It is not fine when you are playing Dwight Howard.

Bill Walker – He will be an absolute steal wherever he goes.  He already has an NBA caliber post game for a shooting guard.  He can get to the rim and you know he is a hard worker after coming back from two major knee injuries.  I would take him in the 20’s ahead of all the big stiffs like JaVale McGee, Jason Thompson, Alexis Ajinca and Hibbert.  Way ahead of them.

Richard Hendrix – I have liked Hednrix’s game since I saw him in one of the high school all-star contests.  He is small, but can score around the basket.  Think a slightly smaller and saner Zach Randolph.  He will make a very good early second round selection.

Malik Hariston – He never lived up to his billing as a high school stud, but he knows how to play has good size and will help someone next year.  Then he will only get better.

Longar Longar – I just want to hear Jay Bilas say Longar Longar has great length.  I think there is a potential nursery rhyme in there somewhere.

Enjoy the darft everyone!Is D

Nuggets fans, look at the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns were a championship caliber team who completely ignored the draft and have slowly crumbled under the pressure of maintaining their high level of play without bringing in young players to help fill in the gaps.

Phoenix’s decision to ignore the draft has been financially based.  They did not understand that even though they could get $3 million per pick, down the road they are weakening their team and actually costing themselves more money due to the fact they had no cheap contracts on the roster.  They had to sign players like Marcus Banks at $5 million a year instead of Rajon Rondo at $1 million a year. 

The Nuggets may not be selling their picks off and at least have the advantage of acquiring future selections when they trade out of the draft, but they are still missing the boat.

Nuggets Vice President of Basketball Operations Mark Warkentien was on FM 104.3 the FAN this morning and although I missed most of the interview, I have heard some blurbs after the fact.  One point Warkentien made was the fact that no rookies made a major impact in the playoffs last season.  Mike and Sandy, who were conducting the interview kind of gave him a free pass, but I am not going to.  There were rookies that contributed to their team’s success in the playoffs such as Al Horford, Thaddeus Young, Julian Wright, Glen Davis and the big one, Rodney Stucky.

Granted most of those guys were drafted before the 20^th pick, but to just outright say there is no one at 20 who can contribute to this team is ridiculous.  I keep talking about Mario Chalmers, but he would be the best point guard on the team if they drafted him this year.  He would also be cheap bringing in a salary of only $1 million as the 20^th selection.  Now there is certainly a good chance that Chalmers will be off the board when they pick, but why not wait until someone drafts him before you opt out of the process?

The draft is the one chance you have to get something for nothing.  Every team is awarded a first round pick and a second round pick every year.  You do not have to do anything to earn it, other than staying solvent and not making under the table deals with Joe Smith.  We know that probably about half of the players will stick in the league and half will not.  Some will even become stars.  If you use your pick wisely you have just earned a competitive advantage over the teams who used their picks poorly.  This is especially true the later you are drafting. 

Obviously the success rate of draftees falls off as the draft progresses, but there are still tremendous players who are drafted in the late first and second rounds.  If you draft a Tony Parker, Josh Howard, David Lee or even Linas Kleiza you have just added a tremendous asset very cheaply.  In addition you have earned a big advantage on the teams who drafted Wayne Simien or Sergei Monia and received nothing for their pick.  Every other way to improve your team costs something.  Trades can cost you players, draft picks and/or salary cap space.  Signing a free agent will cost you money, perhaps even a lot of money (right Orlando fans), and cap space. 

The draft is a free shot at gaining an advantage over your competition and the Nuggets rarely take that shot at going after that advantage.   

The other reasoning Warkentien provided for why they made the deal was that they are basically stockpiling assets.  Knowing what we know about this organization they are probably going to use this pick to package in a future trade.  Taking into account what I have heard from the interview and the comments after it, they will probably look to trade it this offseason to acquire a veteran player.  Warkentien made it very clear that the Nuggets are playing for this season and they are going to let the future worry about itself. 

That brings us to my biggest problem with the management.  They think this team is better than it really is.  We have seen this team fail in the playoffs time and time again, including twice with the current mix.  They are more than a tweak here or there from making any noise.  I had written that the draft was their chance to begin to chart a new course and instead they chose to kick on the afterburners even though they do not have enough gas to reach their destination.

None of us know what kind of deal the Nuggets are cooking up and I may turn out to be wrong.  They just might pull off a deal that is better than any of us could have imagined.  Even if that happens I still stand by my argument that the Nuggets are missing the boat they way they choose to consistently pass on the draft.

Phoenix is feeling the pain and I fear the Nuggets soon will as well.

The Nuggets have once again proven that they find the draft to be a completely unnecessary part of building a team.  They have traded the 20th pick to Charlotte for a protected future first round pick.  In 2009 it is lottery protected.  In 2010 it is protected 1-12, 2011 it is protected 1-10, then 1-8 in 2012 and finally 1-3 in 2013.

Charlotte is a terrible organization and the chances the Nuggets get a decent lottery pick out of the deal is pretty solid.  Of course, that would be in 2011 or 2012.

Needless to say, a top ten pick in 2012 will not make the 2008 draft any more exciting to watch.  And to make things worse, although I saw this coming, I wasted a bunch of time on my draft preview today as well as a follow up article with a more narrow look at players that had been linked to the Nuggets.  Thanks a lot.

Do not discount the financial impact of this deal.  The 20th pick would have received around $1 million next season and that is money they do not have to spend.  However, now that they are not acquiring a player (point guard) in the draft they are going to have to resign Anthony Carter, or some free agent, to play the point and I doubt they will sign that player for less than what that draft pick would have made. 

The Suns have made a similar mistake in the past selling off draft picks that would have provided cheaper alternatives to expensive veterans they had to sign because they had no young players coming down the pike.

There is a silver lining in all of this.  There is no way the Nuggets will end up with DeAndre Jordan.

The Denver Nuggets have not been one of the more effective teams in building through the draft.  The only player on the roster who was drafted by the Nuggets is Carmelo Anthony (although Nene and Linas Kleiza were drafted for the Nuggets by other teams).  Aside from failing to help their team through the draft there is one thing you can count on with the Nuggets.  They will probably make a trade.

Since drafting Carmelo Anthony in 2003 with their first round pick the Nuggets have traded a first round pick every season since.  The years they have not already given their pick away they still end up working up a trade on draft night.  In 2004 they drafted Jameer Nelson with the 20^th pick and shipped him off to Orlando.  In 2005 they had the 20^th and 22^nd picks.  They kept the 20^th pick and drafted Julius Hodge.  With the 22^nd pick they drafted Jarrett Jack, but then traded him to Portland for the 27^th pick, Linas Kleiza, and the 35^th pick, which turned out to be the only player not in the NBA Draft media guide that was drafted, the incomparable Ricky Sanchez.  Actually, he is very comparable and the comparison that comes to mind is the Nikiloz Tskitishvili of the second round.

The wheeling and dealing even goes back before 2003.  In the 2002 draft Antonio McDyess and the draft rights to Frank Williams were sent to New York in exchange for Marcus Camby and the draft rights to Nene.  There have been a couple of other first round picks they acquired from other teams that they used, but the point is it is rare that the Nuggets hang on to their own first round pick, use it and keep the player.  Chances are there is a trade coming with the 20^th pick in the 2008 draft.

In fact over the previous ten drafts, going back to 1999, the Nuggets have used and retained their first round pick only three times.  Who were the three players?  Skita, Melo and Julius Hodge.  Not the best track record.  Maybe we should pray for a trade.

Even so, there is a chance that the Nuggets can help themselves in the draft.  It is clear what this team needs, an upgrade at point guard and some front court depth in case Kenyon Martin, Nene or Camby are either injured or traded.  They are set at shooting guard with Allen Iverson and J.R. Smith.  They have a good duo of small forwards with Melo and Kleiza.  And if Martin and Nene could be counted on to stay healthy and George Karl would use Steven Hunter they would be pretty well set in the front court as well.  Add in Eduardo Najera and the Nuggets go at least two deep at every position except for point guard where they may very well be zero deep.

In the Ridiculous Upside blogger mock draft I selected Mario Chalmers citing the facts that he is a good defender, can shoot, penetrate and knows how to play winning basketball on a talented team.  At the time I thought it was a bit of a reach, but since then Chalmers stock has skyrocketed to the point where he could go as early as 12^th to Sacramento.  If Chalmers is not available for the Nuggets at 20, there is no other point guard that is worth drafting until the early second round. 

If Chalmers does not drop to the Nuggets at pick number 20 they would have to either address their point guard position via a trade or free agency.  One potential deal I could foresee would be a swap with the Trailblazers.  Portland has reportedly purchased the 27^th pick from New Orleans.  They now have five picks in the draft and no where on their roster to put them.  Would Portland be willing to swap the 27^th and 33^rd or 36^th picks with the Nuggets in exchange for the 20^th pick?  The Nuggets could grab a point guard with either of the picks they receive from Portland. 

 The question then is who could they draft?

Kyle Weaver out of Washington State is a nice player similar to Russell Westbrook, but I do not think he has the ball handling and penetration skills required to be a quality point guard in the NBA.  He did raise his three point shooting to a decent 36% last season, but he is not a shooter who can spot up and hit open jumpers from the perimeter.  However, he would fit the profile of a big guard who could help mask AI’s deficiencies as a defender as a miniature shooting guard. 

Another potential point guard prospect the Nuggets could consider in the late first or early second round is Jamont Gordon from Mississippi State, but he is more of a scoring guard in the mold of AI and is an even worse shooter than Weaver.

The other available options would be Mike Taylor, who was booted from Iowa State and played with the Idaho Stampede in the D League last season, or George Hill from IUPUI (that is Indiana University/Purdue University at Indianapolis).  Taylor, like Gordon, is a scoring guard who would make for a poor defensive backcourt while teamed with AI.  Hill is a more of an undersized shooting guard with some point guard skills.  He has decent size, is a good shooter and is a very efficient scorer averaging a mind boggling 1.7 points per shot last season.  He shot over 50% from the field each of his three college seasons.

Out of those four players my preference would be for Weaver or Hill although neither is as good of a point guard prospect as Taurean Green.

The Nuggets are a very tight lipped organization this time of year so it is very difficult to surmise what they are thinking.  The do have a draft section on their official website.  The only really interesting aspect of it is they have a few prospects that they profile by position.  I think it will be very interesting to see if they draft a player out of that group of profiled prospects or if that is more of a smokescreen designed to make other teams wonder if those are the players they are interested in.  I imagine the profiles were put together by someone in the media department and they are simply their best guesses as to who might be available, but I would not put it past the Nuggets, or any other team really, to use their draft section to spread disinformation.

The players that they have featured by position are point guard Chalmers, shooting guards Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee and Brandon Rush, small forwards Nicholas Batum, Donte Greene and Bill Walker, power forwards Darrell Arthur, J.J. Hickson and Nathan Jawai and centers Kosta Koufos, Robin Lopez, JaVale McGee and Marreese Speights.  They also list a handful of other prospects after the featured players.  The only other point guard listed is Mike Taylor.  Jamont Gordon and Kyle Weaver are listed, but as shooting guards.  Hill is not listed, but that might just mean he is the player they really want.  The list of the other players named is too long to print here, but you can check it out for yourself if you are so inclined.

Blah, blah, blah, what does all of this mean? 

My ideal draft for the Nuggets, aside from them trading Camby (to the Knicks for the 6^th pick - Jerryd Bayless? and Eddy Curry - by him out) and AI (to Cleveland for Wally Szczerbiak, Andreson Varejao and the 19^th pick – Courtney Lee) as I have discussed previously, would be to have Chalmers fall to the Nuggets with their 20^th pick, which is entirely possible. Even though Chad Ford at ESPN.com has Chalmers going 12^th to Sacramento, he has admitted that this draft has been the most difficult one to project.  It does seem teams are looking for more of a safe bet than reaching for the high upside players as they have in the past.  If that is indeed the case Chalmers is clearly one of the players who will climb the draft boards.  However, Draft Express still has Chalmers going 27^th.

If the Nuggets cannot land Chalmers, the other player I am interested in is J.J. Hickson from North Carolina State.  He is a very powerful forward who has a knack for scoring in the paint.  He is only 19 and already has an NBA body.  He has a turn around jumper that looks good out to 12 or 15 feet and also has a jumper that will extend out about that far as well.  The only question mark about Hickson is his lateral quickness, but from what I have seen, he is plenty quick.  His beef would provide that depth inside that we discussed earlier that would help protect against another injury plagued season from Martin or Nene and he would be the Nuggets third best post scorer as soon as David Stern would call his name.

Other players that intrigue me are Donte Greene, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee and Kosta Koufos though I have reservations about all of them.  With Green I do not see the need to add another high volume shooter to the roster.  Douglas Roberts is not a good perimeter shooter and Lee is a solid player in the mold of a Rodney Stucky, although without the point skills, but my primary concern with him is that his presence might make it easier to let J.R. Smith walk and talent wise Lee is a far cry from Smith.  Koufos is a highly skilled big man, but can he rebound and defend against NBA centers?

Nicholas Batum is another player that I like, but how does he fit in with Melo and Kleiza in front of him?  He probably would not play for at least two seasons and with the Nuggets current aged roster they are playing for now, not the future.

There are also a gaggle of players that I am exceedingly fearful of and that group includes Robin Lopez, Alexis Ajinca, Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan.  Lopez is nowhere near even Steven Hunter’s talent level.  Ajinca is the typical workout wonder that is shooting up the charts despite the fact that he was not able to be an effective player in France.  Hibbert is the typical stiff who will get circles run around him by other centers. McGee is a good dunker, but can do little else and Jordan lacks the desire to improve.

With all of that being said, in the end none of us really have any idea what the Nuggets will do.  Will they trade down?  Trade up?  Trade out?  Will Chalmers fall to them?  If so, do they take him or go after some high risk, high reward bust waiting to happen?

Only time will tell and fortunately for us that time is near.

As part of the previously mentioned blogger mock draft hosted by Ridiculous Upside my selection for the Nuggets 20^th pick is up.  You will have to head over there to see the who the lucky player is, but I will say if you told me a week ago that this was the player I was going to draft, I probably would have just shook my head and chuckled thinking you to be a knucklehead.

In other draft related news I just saw a rumor reported by Chad Ford on ESPN.com that he referred to as the “hottest rumor of the day” involving a trade between the Nuggets and Grizzlies.

The deal would be Linas Kleiza and the 20^th pick to the Grizzlies in exchange for Kyle Lowry and the Grizzlies 28^th pick.  If you ask me Kleiza is a more established NBA player and has more value than Lowry, so why would Denver take both the lesser player and the lesser pick?  To me that sounds like a pretty poor deal though not a disastrous one.

Draft Express is reporting the same rumor although they do not mention Kleiza.  Memphis would have to get something other than the 20^th pick for Lowry and pick 28.  While Lowry is no superstar, he is definitely worth more than moving up eight spots in the tertiary portion of the first round.

Lowry is a decent point guard, but he is not a good shooter (under 26% from downtown).  His strength is that he is powerfully built and does a good job of getting in the lane and finishing.  I know the Nuggets have been rumored to be interested in him in the past, but I just do not think that would be a good deal.

Even though I already made my draft pick if I can continue pretending I was the Nuggets GM, I would ask for Javaris Crittenton instead of Lowry.  Obviously Crittenton is less established than Lowry, but he is much more talented.  He can play at a fast pace, and has great size for a point guard.  A backcourt of the future with Crittenton and J.R. Smith would be mouth watering.