On Sunday, April 20th 2008 Pickaxe and Roll will have a brand new look.  Do not be afraid.  The current platform is very cool, but the amount of goodies that will be available under the new system will, as Jack Black would say, melt your face!

There will be a post tomorrow explaining all the new features and how they will make your experience even better than it is now.  

I am very excited about this change and I know you will all love it.

P.S. If you want to see what the new layout looks like check out Golden State of Mind.

My preview for Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold is up and you can read about what I think the Nuggets do best on offense and defense by clicking here.

You can also find a comprehensive list of links on the Nuggets/Lakers series by following this link.

I am going all out for you guys to bring you the best possible coverage of this playoff series.  Not only did I exchange thoughts on the series with Kurt from the great Lakers blog Forum Blue and Gold, but I have also teamed up with Brian Kamenetzky from Sports Hub LA and the Los Angeles Times Lakers blog for more insight into the upcoming Nuggets/Lakers series.  
 
You can read my submission on how to beat or lose to the Nuggets by clicking here.

Three Ways to Beat the Lakers

1) Turn them into a perimeter jumpshooting team.

It’s not that the Lakers can’t shoot from distance (they’re sixth in the NBA in 3 point percentage), or aren’t willing to take them (again, sixth in the league in three point attempts).  And occasionally, they’ll shoot themselves to big wins.  But while the strategy might pay off from time to time, LA is never better when they’re chucking from outside like the Warriors on a bender.  Lakers fans are still bitter over a 114-111 home loss to the Grizzlies in which the team obliterated the franchise record with 45 three attempts.  45!  In regulation!  When the Lakers get content taking open looks from the perimeter, it plays against their real strength (penetration and post play) and to one of their greatest weaknesses, namely transition D.

There’s a reason so many teams (including, if memory serves, Denver) have zoned up the Lakers this year.  More often than not, they’ll be content trying to shoot over it rather than working the ball into the high post and creating lanes to the basket.

2) Get Physical.

Beat them up, pound guys when they come in the lane, give a little somethin’ somethin’ when scraping off a pick, don’t be afraid to grab some jersey when going up for a rebound.  Then, once that’s done, hope the refs swallow their whistles.  Over the course of the season, when that’s happened the Lakers have shown a nasty tendency to lose focus when they don’t get calls.  Or, if you can prefer, you can call it a tendency to whine.  Some of it comes from Kobe, who spent most of the second half riding refs like Jorge Velazquez on Alydar until he ended up one T short of a suspension.  Now, unshackled from that threat, if Kobe starts whining, the rest of the team could follow.  

Moreover, the knock on Pau Gasol has always been his toughness, and while he’s shown some grit as a Laker, teams have been effective when they knock him around a little.  He’s got much more polish offensively than Andrew Bynum, but is also more susceptible to physical play.  Take K-Mart, Najera, Nene, and Najera and throw body after body to Gasol.  

3) Move.

Everyone knows the Nuggets can get up and down the floor, and that does indeed work against the Lakers, who struggle with athletic, fast break teams.  But the Lakers are also very well suited to slow AI, Anthony, and Co. down by taking care of the ball and pounding it inside.  But even if the Lakers can limit fast break opportunities, the Nuggets can still hurt them in the half court.  Teams like Utah, Portland, and Sacramento  found success using any number of off-ball screens and back door cuts.  Like most teams in the NBA, LA struggles with the pick and roll, though they’ve improved that aspect of their defense over the last couple weeks.  

Even in half court play, if the Nuggets stay active they can hurt the Lakers.  Of course, this would require them to actually run some plays and show a little discipline, so it might not be an option.  If set plays basically amount to isos with AI and Melo, Denver will score, but they won’t win.  

Three Ways to Lose to the Lakers

1) Double Kobe all the time.

Yeah, I know this means 24 will be able to roam free and pick apart the soft spots of an already soft defense, but as other teams in the post-Pau era have learned, it doesn’t pay to throw bodies at Bryant.  He’s outstanding at recognizing the exact moment when the double hasn’t reached him yet, but is still too far away from his man to recover, and then delivering the ball to an open teammate.  Between Bryant, Gasol, and Lamar Odom, the Lakers are too good a passing team to leave players open on the floor with a double that is almost certain not to work.  Since Gasol has returned to the lineup from his ankle injury, the Lakers have routinely slaughtered teams that have tried to keep Kobe from beating them.  So along those lines...

2) Don’t ignore the supporting cast.

Not just Gasol or even Lamar Odom.  The more players the Lakers can get into double figures, the more likely they are to win.  Kobe is going to get his points, and in the triangle, Pau has become a force.  Those are givens.  It’s when Sasha Vujacic gets nine, Vlad Radmanovic hits for 12, Luke Walton gets eight, Derek Fisher gets 13, and so on that the Lakers become almost impossible to beat.  Recognizing how much better the Lakers are when there’s balance is part of the reason Kobe has become such a strong MVP candidate (he gets my non-existent vote, for what it’s worth).  

He’ll still take shots that aren’t quality, but the number of CIFSPG (Cringe Inducing Forced Shots Per Game) Bryant hoists has gone down considerably.  If the defense gives him 18 looks, that’s what he’ll take.  But if that’s the case, he’s likely to have set up his teammates for a lot of great shots, and LA is likely to have piled up points.  

3) Cede the paint.

Everything the Lakers do well is predicated on getting the ball inside.  Their offense is built around it, as is their defensive stability.  When they don’t get the ball near the basket, things tend to get wonky. Of course, keeping the Lakers out of the paint is easier said than done.  Kobe can penetrate against virtually any defender, and between LO and Gasol, there’s a lot of length to exploit.  Among the reserves, Jordan Farmar has become less three happy over the last ten games or so, and is now back to attacking the rim.  Luke Walton, in part because he’s had trouble shooting the ball, loves to post up.  

Odom in particular has become almost impossible to defend since the arrival of Gasol.  The worry was that the move, which pushed Odom back to small forward, would leave him shooting more jumpers.  Instead, it’s been just the opposite.  His entire game is now at the rack, whether in transition, posting up, or attacking from the perimeter.  After posting shooting percentages of 49%, 49%, and 41% over the first three months, Odom has gone crazy in the second half.  62.3% in February, 55% in March (when Gasol missed some games) and 63.4% in April.  

All in all, I think it’ll be tough for Denver to do what needs to be done to pull off the upset, but hey, you never know.  If Deke can do it, why not AI?  Okay, I know why.  Lakers in five.  

Thank you Brian for the insights.  Tomorrow is game day and that means only one more preview for you guys to read.  You are almost there!

Today I was interviewed on ESPN 710 AM in Los Angeles.  They are quite confident about the Lakers chances in this series and are already talking about whether they will face Phoenix or San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals.

Of course, I cannot say I blame them.

Click here to listen to the interview.  

The link will download the entire first hour of the show so it may take a while.  The interview is the last segment so skip ahead to about the 3/4 mark to hear it, but feel free to listen to all of it.  Before my segment they make fun of European basketball players, which is always fun to do.  

You can also find podcasts for interviews they have done with other bloggers (such as Bright Side of the Sun and Mavs Moneyball) by clicking here.

I have teamed up with Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold as the never ending previews for what may be the never ending playoffs continue to roll in.  Kurt has been kind enough to let us know why the Lakers are so good and what Denver should be wary of when the games get underway.

I have done the same for his readers and I will post a link to my insights when it is ready.

First off, I think this is going to be an entertaining series where the games will be closer than some (particularly giddy/drunk Lakers fans) think. It's a sign of how tough things are in the West that a 50-win team with two All-World players to lead it, a team that would be a popular darkhorse candidate in the East (behind the legit Boston and Detroit teams) is the 8th seed. Crazy.

As someone who follows the Lakers, let me give you a few things to look for.

On offense, the Lakers are amazing right now. Some would say unstoppable, although I wouldn't go that far. But, you can't bottle them up for long. To start, here is the ultra-short breakdown of the "triangle" offense the Lakers run plays are not set in stone like most offenses, rather the goal is to read and react to what the defense gives you. Double Gasol in the post or Kobe, and they should be able to pass out and thanks to the spacing the offense calls for someone should get an open shot. Either an open three or diving to the hoop. To defend the Lakers you have to be disciplined.

What makes that hard is Kobe and Gasol. I don't think you need much of a primer on Kobe, he gets his share of publicity. And like 20 other players' share. One thing about his offensive game, to quote Bruce Bowen, is "he has no tendencies." He can go right or left, drive to the hoop or pull up from three. That versatility makes him even tougher to cover, you can't force him toward a weakness.

Gasol is going to be a bigger problem for you because he can play inside or out. Camby can defend him in the post, but I expect the Lakers to get Gasol the ball on the wing 18 feet out, and force Camby to come out on him. That will slow Camby's amazing help-side defense, or Gasol will get open midrange jumpers (which he will hit consistently).

All the attention on Gasol and Kobe has really freed up Lamar Odom lately, who has become a consistent 15 and 12 guy every night. Odom is doing what Marion used to do in Phoenix, he gets his points without "plays" being run for him. He finds points in the gaps, he moves well without the ball, he crashes the boards. (The one difference, Odom likes this role and Marion chaffed in it.)

Finally, the rest of the Lakers role players can shoot and are good passers, Fisher, Radmanovic, Walton, Vujacic. They get to spots and if you ignore them they can have big nights. But you saw that this year with Fisher and Radmanovic having good nights against Denver. The Lakers are a very deep team, the bench can more than hold its own and the versatility of players gives Phil Jackson a lot of tools to play with.

The real question about the Lakers is defense, they can play it well, but do it inconsistently. Coming into the end of the season the Lakers had good defensive games against New Orleans and San Antonio, although even in those games they didn't play 48 minutes of defense. With the amazing weapons the Nuggets bring to the table, the Lakers will have to be focused.

Know that you will see almost exclusively man-to-man defense. The only time zone really comes in is occasionally they will go to it mid-play on the pick-and-roll, the big will stay out high at the top of a 1-2-2. That coverage is mixed in with other defenses for the pick-and-roll, but if it works they'll go to it a lot.

With no Andrew Bynum (don't ask, we don't know either, but with a 20-year-old stud with a long career ahead of him, better to be safe than sorry) the Lakers lack a real intimidator in the paint, ala Camby. Gasol is a solid post defender, but if you can get in the lane the Lakers are not great at changing shots.

The big question is what will the Lakers do with Carmelo. I imagine a few people will get their chances, but look for Odom and Radmanovic to get the main assignment. The Lakers tried Luke Walton earlier this season on him and Melo made him look slow. Which really isn't that hard, but the Lakers likely won't return to that. I expect the Lakers will use taller, longer guys this time in hopes of disrupting his flow.

Where the Nuggets will cause the Lakers problems, other than AI or Melo going off for 50 on any given night, is if they suck LA into an up-and-down game. This Lakers team likes to run and can do it (Gasol runs the floor well for a big) but in this match up they need to be disciplined. The Nuggets are simply better at run and gun. If it becomes about getting up and down the court, if the Lakers jack up open threes 7 seconds into the shot clock, it plays to the Nuggets strengths. And nobody is more willing to slip into that mode than Kobe, he's very good at that style. But it's not how the Lakers as a team win.

I think you'll see the Lakers slip into that for flashes, and then Phil Jackson will call a time out. He will beat the discipline thing into their heads. And, for the most part, the team plays that way. I think they'll play that well often enough to win close games consistently. Sorry to say this to you, as I think you as fans deserve better (plus I love Denver as a city, one of my favorite places to visit), but I like the Lakers in five games, maybe six.

Thanks to Kurt for taking the time to give us an idea of what we are in for.  He has put together a great post analyzing the three regular season meetings which is well worth reading.

I have submitted a couple of playoff previews so far on other sites and in order to read what I have to say just click on the links below.

Nuggets/Lakers preview over at Ball Don't Lie

Get ready for the playoffs with 20 Questions over at Harwood Paroxysm

Also do not forget to vote in the reader's choice blogging awards over at Hardwood Paroxysm.

There will be a couple more of these over the next 24-48 hours, so keep your eyes open.

Also, any of you can post your own playoff preview by submitting a diary so let everyone know why you think the Nuggets can or cannot win.

I have been asked to be on the Steve Mason show on ESPN Radio 710 AM in Los Angeles this afternoon at 3:06 pm mountain time to talk about the matchup between the Nuggets and Lakers.

You should be able to listen live by clicking here.

It should also be posted as a podcast later today and I will provide a link to that in case you miss the live show.

Update:  If you are listening live, they are running behind and I will be on soon.

Update to the update:  Due to a plan that would bring an NFL team back to LA I have been bumped and am rescheduled for tomorrow.  I think I will just provide the link to the podcast should I make it on the air.  

Sorry to anyone who sat through a bunch of LA sports talk for no reason.

Now that we have come to the end of the regular season and before we start looking ahead to the series with the Lakers, let’s take a quick look back at the last 82 games.

With the victory against the Grizzlies in the last game of the season they Nuggets have won 50 games.  That is an accomplishment simply for the reason that the Denver Nuggets have not won 50 games for 20 years.  The only teams (other than the Bobcats) who have not won 50 games at least once over those 20 years are the Wizards, Raptors and Clippers.

That is not the kind of company that you want your team to keep.

So yes, congratulations are in order for this team finally breaking the 50 win barrier.

Now for the shot of realism.  The 2007-2008 Denver Nuggets were put together to do better than that.

No matter how well they did in the regular season, they knew they would be judged on how far they progressed through the playoffs.  Another first round exit was not acceptable for this squad.  However, they knew that a good regular season was vital to their goal of making a playoff run.  The Nuggets players were aware that they needed home court advantage and thus a good regular season record.

Over the last ten seasons 50 wins in the Western Conference has only resulted in having home court advantage in the first round once.  I think a big deal is made out of 50 wins because it is a nice round number, but 50 win seasons are not rare.  There have been at least five 50 win teams in the west in nine of the past ten years.  At least one third of the teams in the west produce 50 win seasons nearly every year.

Is that really such an exclusive club?

For a team that was supposed to be a contender much more was expected, but as I mentioned, they still have a shot at reaching or surpassing the expectations that really matter.

If the Nuggets make it past the Lakers will any of us remember this season as the one they underachieved their way to 50 wins or the year they pulled another upset as the eighth seed and made a playoff run?

But we will have time to address the playoffs while awaiting the start of the Nuggets/Lakers series on Sunday.  That’s right, Sunday.

The most interesting matchup in the Nuggets/Grizzlies game tonight will be taking place in Dallas.  

Denver can catch Dallas and earn the seventh seed with a victory over Memphis and a Dallas loss.  Should such a scenario occur Denver would play New Orleans instead of the dreaded Los Angeles Lakers.

The interesting thing here is the team Dallas is playing is New Orleans.  The Hornets have locked up the second seed in the Western Conference so they really have nothing to play for.  That is unless they want to play the Nuggets instead of the Mavericks in the first round.  

On the flip side Dallas knows that a win would set them up to play the Hornets and a loss would most likely result in a matchup with the Lakers.  I would imagine that Dallas would rather face the Hornets than the Lakers, but they have played the Lakers as tough as anyone this year.

What is my point?  Well, it will be interesting to see how both teams approach this game. If New Orleans goes all out and plays their starters for their regular minutes that tells us that they would much rather face the Nuggets than the Mavs.  While I doubt this would happen, is it possible Dallas come out and do a little tanking to fall to the eighth spot and maybe set themselves up for a series against LA knowing that there would be absolutely no pressure on them to win?  

I suspect that New Orleans will rest their key players and Dallas will play to win, but if something different happens we will know there is some playoff seeding shenanigans going on.

As far as the Nuggets go, they have been aiming at the 50 win plateau for some time now so expect them to play this game straight up tonight.  The Nuggets last 50+ win season was exactly 20 years ago in 1987-1988 when they set the franchise record of 54 wins.  

I will delve a little further into the Nuggets performance over the previous 15-20 seasons another day.

I honestly believe the Nuggets have no shot at defeating the Lakers in a seven game series, but they do have a slight chance at knocking off the Hornets so tonight’s game with the Grizzlies may be more meaningful than just exceeding the 49 win barrier.  

Despite having won three of their last seven games Memphis is playing out the string.  Those three victories came against Minnesota, Miami and New York.  Memphis has not provided much resistance to any of the quality teams they have faced recently.

The reason to watch Memphis is the development of Rudy Gay and the recent solid play of rookie Mike Conley.  Gay is warping up a very nice sophomore season with averages of 20.3 points on 46.3% shooting and 6.2 rebounds.  Conley is averaging 18 points, just over five assists and almost six rebounds a game over his previous four contests.  He will undoubtedly look to improve on what may have been his worst game as a professional in his first game in Denver.  

Nene is still out and may miss the playoffs, especially if they only last four or five games.  Everyone else is healthy enough to play and hopefully we will see plenty of Taurean Green, Bobby Jones and Steven Hunter in the fourth quarter tonight.

Make sure you check out the game preview over at one of the best blogs around, 3 Shades of Blue.  

I will miss most of the game tonight, but do not let that stop the rest of you from talking it up in the comments section.

Update:  Mavs Moneyball has some links up discussing the ramifications and attitudes towards tonight's Mavs/Hornets game.

The Denver Nuggets employed a 2-3 zone to help slow Golden State’s powerful offense in Denver’s 114-105 win.

I have put together some clips that show why it was so effective.  Eduardo Najera did a great job of covering over 200 square feet from the rim out to the three point line.  Because Najera was roaming so far from the paint it put pressure on the other four Nugget players to help cover even more ground themselves.  

It was surprising to see the Nuggets work as such a unit in these clips.  For a vast majority of the season it is difficult to figure out if they had all received different and conflicting instructions in the huddle.  However, they implemented a very unorthodox zone scheme against the Warriors and appeared to be sharing a single consciousness.  One thing I did not point out in the video was how the two outside baseline players did a great job of pinching in the middle when Najera was at the top of the key and then how well they reacted back out towards the perimeter.  

This defense helped save the day for Denver as they stifled the Golden State offense long enough to turn a 16 point deficit into a six point lead in the first six minutes of the second quarter.